Mobile traffic is accelerating. AI is reshaping uplink demand. And simply adding more capacity every time traffic grows is an expensive strategy.
So, how do we scale the RAN without scaling cost at the same rate?
In the attached article, I explore a five-year approach that brings together RAN capacity evolution, SMO/RIC intelligence, automation, and AI-driven optimization, from spectral efficiency and Massive MIMO to traffic steering, energy optimization, and closed-loop assurance.
The opportunity is bigger than carrying more traffic.
It is building networks that become more efficient, measurable, and adaptable as they grow.
Curious to hear how others in the industry are approaching this challenge.
#5G
#RAN
#NetworkAutomation
#AIRAN
#Telecommunications
Scaling Mobile Networks for the Next Five Years: Why RAN Capacity and Network Intelligence Must Evolve Together
Mobile traffic growth is a familiar challenge for network operators. Each generation of mobile technology has brought increasing demand, and the industry has responded with additional spectrum, more efficient radio technologies, better antennas, new sites, and progressively more sophisticated network architectures.
The next five years add another dimension to that challenge. Operators need to absorb substantially more traffic while maintaining network performance, controlling energy consumption, managing increasing architectural complexity, and keeping capital and operating costs economically sustainable.
The June 2026 Ericsson Mobility Report provides a useful indication of the scale. Total global mobile network traffic, including Fixed Wireless Access, reached approximately 203 EB per month at the end of 2025 and is forecast to reach approximately 515 EB per month by 2031. That represents roughly 2.5 times the traffic and a 17 percent compound annual growth rate over the forecast period.
This growth creates a strategic question for operators:
How can network capacity scale significantly while the cost of carrying that traffic grows much more slowly?
I believe the answer lies in combining two disciplines: disciplined RAN capacity evolution and increasingly intelligent network operations through SMO, RIC, analytics, and automation.
The RAN provides the physical capacity. The intelligence layer helps operators determine where that capacity is needed, how effectively existing resources are being used, and when additional investment becomes economically justified.
The traffic curve is already moving
The 203 EB per month starting point is significant, although the direction of travel matters even more.
Mobile network data traffic grew approximately 22 percent year over year in Q1 2026. At the end of 2025, approximately 48 percent of mobile data traffic was already carried over 5G, with that share forecast to reach around 85 percent by 2031.
These numbers indicate that 5G is rapidly becoming the primary platform carrying mobile traffic. They also demonstrate why a five-year network strategy needs enough flexibility to accommodate growth that may arrive faster, slower, or in different locations than the original forecast assumed.
A critical qualification applies to these numbers. The 17 percent CAGR is a global planning envelope. It should never become a per-cell dimensioning assumption.
A real operator would forecast at cluster and site level using busy-hour traffic, PRB utilization, subscriber growth, spectrum availability, FWA penetration, congestion, QoS measurements, mobility patterns, and urban, suburban, and rural characteristics. Individual cells can behave very differently from the global average.
This leads to an important planning principle:
Total traffic tells us the scale of the problem. Traffic density and local KPIs tell us where to invest.
Traffic growth is also changing shape
Volume is only one part of the forecast. The composition and direction of traffic are changing as well.
Video remains the largest traffic category, accounting for roughly 75 percent of traffic. Higher-resolution streaming, live content, short-form video, and increasing consumption continue to create substantial downlink demand.
At the same time, uplink deserves increasing attention.
Mobile networks have historically been engineered around downlink-heavy usage. Streaming and browsing primarily move information from the network toward the device. AI assistants, collaboration applications, video calls, user-generated content, cameras, vehicles, robots, sensors, and multimodal applications create more traffic in the opposite direction.
Current industry forecasts indicate that uplink demand could reach around three times 2025 levels by 2031 under certain AI and collaboration workload scenarios.
Downlink capacity will continue to matter enormously, particularly because of video. Future network planning will increasingly need to consider growth in both directions.
FWA introduces another dimension. A household broadband connection can generate a very different usage profile from a smartphone. As mobile infrastructure increasingly carries fixed broadband traffic in selected markets, operators can see substantial additional load concentrated in specific geographic areas.
Enterprise 5G adds performance requirements alongside traffic growth. These services can require predictable throughput, latency, availability, security, and differentiated service quality. Commercial 5G SA slicing is also expanding, increasing the need for networks capable of managing differentiated traffic and service requirements.
Together, these trends create a multidimensional planning problem: more traffic, changing traffic patterns, greater geographic concentration, and higher performance expectations.
The economic challenge
Adding capacity remains essential. The difficult part is deciding how and where to add it.
If every increase in traffic leads directly to additional radios, spectrum, sites, power consumption, maintenance, and operational effort, the engineering solution can create an economic problem.
The objective should therefore be to make the relationship between traffic growth and cost increasingly nonlinear.
This is where I see value in a two-track strategy.
Track A focuses on RAN capacity. Track B focuses on SMO and RIC intelligence.
The two tracks operate together throughout the planning period.
Track A: Extract more capacity from existing assets first
RAN capacity can be approached through a hierarchy of investment options. The exact sequence depends on local network conditions, spectrum holdings, equipment, traffic distribution, and business priorities. The general principle is to extract value from existing assets before moving toward progressively more capital-intensive interventions.
Start with spectral efficiency
Spectral efficiency describes how much information can be transported through a given amount of spectrum, typically measured in bits per second per Hertz.
Improving spectral efficiency means carrying more traffic through spectrum the operator already owns.
Several mechanisms contribute to this, including improved scheduling, modulation, interference management, antenna optimization, beamforming where supported, and software or configuration improvements.
This makes spectral efficiency one of the most attractive early capacity levers. The operator can potentially create additional headroom without acquiring spectrum or building another site.
There are diminishing returns. A well-optimized site eventually reaches the point where additional tuning produces relatively small gains. At that stage, additional physical resources become necessary.
Continue with spectrum refarming
Spectrum refarming reallocates frequencies previously used for older mobile generations toward newer technologies such as 5G.
Its economic appeal is straightforward. The operator already owns the spectrum.
Execution depends heavily on local conditions. Legacy subscriber populations, device penetration, regulatory requirements, existing spectrum holdings, and technology sunset plans determine how quickly frequencies can be reassigned.
For this reason, refarming is best treated as a continuous, market-specific activity rather than a single network-wide event.
Use carrier aggregation and upgrade existing sites
Carrier aggregation allows multiple carriers to work together, creating greater effective bandwidth for compatible devices.
Radio and baseband upgrades can also extend the useful life and capabilities of existing sites. Depending on the starting architecture, an operator may be able to introduce additional bands, newer radio technology, more efficient equipment, or additional 5G functionality while continuing to use existing site infrastructure.
The financial principle remains consistent: maximize existing spectrum and sites before introducing additional locations.
Expand Massive MIMO where traffic justifies it
Massive MIMO is one of the most powerful capacity tools available in modern RAN.
Large antenna arrays enable spatial multiplexing and sophisticated beamforming, allowing an existing site to serve multiple users more efficiently over the same spectrum.
The technology can significantly increase capacity while using a site the operator already owns, potentially avoiding some of the acquisition and construction requirements associated with densification.
Deployment should follow local evidence. Traffic density, spectrum position, propagation environment, equipment capabilities, energy requirements, and expected return all influence the decision.
This is where network intelligence becomes especially valuable.
Densify where additional cells are justified
Some locations will eventually require additional cells.
Small-cell densification can provide significant capacity in persistent hotspots, although it also introduces additional site acquisition, transport, power, integration, maintenance, and operational requirements.
That makes densification a more selective capacity lever.
The hierarchy should remain flexible. A hotspot experiencing severe congestion today should be addressed today when the evidence supports the investment. The capacity hierarchy provides financial discipline and a decision framework. It does not require an operator to tolerate a known performance problem until a particular year in a roadmap.
Track B: Build intelligence around the RAN
Track A determines how capacity can be created. Track B improves the information used to decide where, when, and how those capacity investments should occur.
This is why I would introduce SMO and RIC capabilities early in the five-year period.
Capacity forecasting
A meaningful capacity forecast requires considerably more information than a global traffic CAGR.
At cluster and site level, I would want to understand busy-hour utilization, PRB utilization, user throughput, congestion duration, subscriber growth, traffic growth by cluster, mobility patterns, FWA penetration, service quality, and available spectrum.
Historical patterns can then be combined with current measurements to forecast where capacity constraints are likely to emerge.
AI and machine learning can strengthen this process by identifying relationships across large datasets and recognizing patterns that may be difficult to detect through manual analysis alone. Engineering judgment remains essential for validating the conclusions and translating them into investment decisions.
The objective is to identify emerging capacity problems early enough to act economically.
Policy optimization
Policy optimization translates business and network objectives into operational rules.
An operator may define policies around user experience, congestion, mobility stability, energy consumption, service levels, or specific enterprise requirements. Automation can then operate within those defined boundaries.
This provides an important governance model for increasingly autonomous networks. Operators continue to define objectives, thresholds, safeguards, and escalation rules while automation executes approved actions within those constraints.
Traffic steering
Traffic steering provides a practical example.
A heavily loaded cell can exist beside another cell, frequency layer, or neighboring resource with available capacity. Keeping every user connected purely according to the strongest signal can therefore produce an inefficient distribution of demand.
Traffic steering can consider radio conditions, load, mobility, available resources, and operator policy to distribute users more effectively.
This can improve customer experience and create additional usable headroom before further hardware investment becomes necessary.
Energy optimization
Energy is becoming increasingly important to the economics of RAN evolution. Industry estimates place energy at approximately 20 to 40 percent of network OpEx in many operator environments.
Network demand also varies significantly throughout the day.
An intelligent energy-management system can identify periods when full capacity is unnecessary. Within operator-defined coverage and performance constraints, selected carriers or resources can enter energy-saving states and return as demand increases.
The value comes from the closed-loop process. The system measures conditions, applies an approved action, monitors the resulting KPIs, and can reverse the action if service quality deteriorates.
This creates a continuous optimization process between network performance and energy consumption.
Assurance and closed-loop operations
The same model applies to network assurance.
Traditional operations can involve detecting an alarm, sending it to an operations team, analyzing the problem, identifying a likely root cause, selecting a corrective action, implementing the change, and checking the result.
Automation can progressively close parts of this loop.
Monitoring and analytics identify anomalies. Root-cause analysis narrows the problem. Policy determines which actions are permitted. Automation can recommend or execute an action, validate the outcome, and roll back when necessary.
The business value comes from handling increasing network complexity without requiring operational headcount to grow at the same rate.
Non-RT RIC and Near-RT RIC serve different purposes
Different optimization problems require different control timescales.
The Non-RT RIC supports control loops above one second and provides the environment for rApps handling functions such as capacity forecasting, policy optimization, and energy management.
Near-RT RIC operates on a faster timescale, approximately 10 milliseconds to one second, and can support xApps for functions such as rapid load balancing and mobility optimization through the E2 interface.
A practical architecture should apply Near-RT RIC where the use case and deployed RAN architecture justify sub-second control. Many strategic optimization problems can remain at the SMO and Non-RT RIC level.
This keeps architectural complexity aligned with measurable value.
The pairing is the point
RAN capacity and SMO/RIC intelligence become substantially more valuable when treated as one investment strategy.
Track A creates physical headroom. Track B provides the visibility and automation needed to use existing resources more efficiently, recognize emerging bottlenecks, and target future capacity investment.
There are clear physical limits to what automation can achieve. A cell that genuinely requires additional radio resources still needs a capacity intervention. Spectrum scarcity, propagation, interference, antenna characteristics, and site constraints remain fundamental engineering realities.
The value of automation lies in making those physical investments more precise and making the resulting network more efficient to operate.
This creates several potential benefits: better utilization of existing capacity, earlier identification of congestion, delayed or avoided capital expenditure where sufficient headroom exists, more precise targeting of necessary investment, reduced manual intervention, lower energy consumption, and improved performance consistency as traffic increases.
A five-year roadmap
The sequencing of these capabilities matters because the intelligence developed in the early years can improve the quality of larger capital decisions later.
Year 1: Establish the foundation
The first year should establish visibility and measurement.
Deploy the SMO and Non-RT RIC foundation, onboard the multi-vendor RAN inventory, establish baseline KPIs, perform a spectrum-utilization audit, and identify early congestion and spectrum opportunities.
Multi-vendor inventory is especially important. Capacity forecasting, energy optimization, assurance, and policy management all depend on having a trusted understanding of the network assets being managed.
Baseline measurements are equally important. Future claims about savings, performance improvement, automation coverage, and operational efficiency require a reliable starting point.
Year 2: Optimize and automate
With the foundation established, automation can expand into high-value operational use cases.
Traffic steering and energy optimization can begin in high-traffic clusters. Selective spectrum refarming, carrier aggregation, and radio optimization can continue in parallel. Hotspots should receive immediate capacity relief wherever local KPIs justify intervention.
The selective approach is important because network conditions differ substantially between markets and clusters.
Year 3: Scale capacity
By Year 3, the operator should have significantly better evidence about where demand is developing and how much additional headroom the earlier optimization measures have created.
A broader RAN investment wave can then focus on Massive MIMO, targeted small cells, continued refarming, and radio upgrades in the highest-growth locations identified through network data.
Capital spending becomes more targeted because it is informed by two years of improved traffic and performance visibility.
Critical capacity problems should already have been addressed wherever required. Year 3 represents the point where targeted capacity expansion becomes a major program.
Year 4: Scale slicing and closed-loop assurance
As the 5G SA foundation matures, commercial network slicing can expand alongside broader closed-loop assurance.
Automation maturity can also move toward more policy-driven operation. Selected high-value scenarios such as energy optimization, anomaly handling, traffic management, and assurance are realistic candidates for increasingly autonomous operation.
The scope matters. Achieving a high level of autonomy in selected operational domains is a more credible objective than assuming complete network-wide autonomy within five years.
Year 5: Mature optimization and prepare for the next cycle
By Year 5, the AI and machine-learning models supporting rApps should have accumulated substantial operational history. They can be refined using observed traffic, performance, energy, and automation outcomes.
This is also an appropriate stage to begin a 6G-readiness assessment.
A readiness assessment allows operators to evaluate future spectrum, architecture, transport, compute, and operational implications while continuing to extract value from the 5G investments already in place.
A five-year plan needs regular decision points
Traffic forecasts inevitably change.
FWA adoption can accelerate in one market. Enterprise demand can reshape another. Spectrum availability can change. Automation may create more headroom than expected. A new hotspot can emerge considerably faster than the national traffic trend suggests.
For that reason, I would introduce milestone reviews every two quarters, with a complete annual re-baselining against the latest traffic forecast.
Those reviews can change both timing and investment priorities.
Capacity investment can move forward when traffic accelerates. Hardware expenditure can move later when optimization creates sufficient headroom. Capital and engineering resources can shift toward clusters experiencing faster growth. Automation programs that fail to generate expected value can also be reconsidered.
The roadmap therefore establishes strategic direction while preserving the ability to respond to evidence.
Investment should follow defined gates
The same principle can be applied to funding.
The foundation investment can be approved early, while larger future capacity investments are released progressively against measurable decision gates.
Four categories provide a useful framework.
Capacity gates include busy-hour utilization, congestion duration, PRB utilization, throughput degradation, and traffic CAGR by cluster.
Automation gates include the percentage of the network under closed-loop management, number of manual interventions, MTTR, and automation success or rollback rates.
Economic gates include energy per site, OpEx per site, cost per transported GB, avoided or delayed CapEx, and time-to-value.
Performance gates include user throughput, latency, availability, dropped sessions, and mobility success.
This turns the roadmap into an investment governance model. Each major capital tranche has to demonstrate why it should proceed.
Cost per transported GB deserves particular attention
Traffic growth alone tells us relatively little about economic efficiency.
Consider an operator carrying twice as much traffic five years from now. If network cost also doubles, the network has successfully scaled capacity while achieving limited improvement in the economics of carrying that traffic.
If traffic doubles while total network cost rises considerably more slowly, cost per transported GB declines.
That provides a useful measure of whether spectrum efficiency, automation, energy optimization, capacity targeting, and operational improvements are collectively changing the economics of the network.
It also connects engineering decisions directly to the business case.
What does the evidence say about economic viability?
Industry evidence provides useful reference points, although the figures come from different contexts and should be interpreted accordingly.
Ericsson analysis estimates up to 10 percent RAN OpEx savings over five years for brownfield operators through SMO-driven automation. This is an industry estimate rather than a universally realized deployment result.
A separate reference point comes from NTT DOCOMO’s OREX announcement in September 2023. The date is important because these figures were published almost three years before the June 2026 Ericsson traffic forecast discussed earlier.
DOCOMO’s 2023 announcement described expected reductions of up to 30 percent in total cost of ownership and up to 50 percent in base-station power consumption under its OREX assumptions. These were estimated targets. They are best understood as an indication of the economic ambition associated with the program rather than as realized 2026 savings.
A more recent operational reference comes from Rakuten Mobile. In February 2026, the operator reported approximately 20 percent RAN energy conservation from autonomous closed-loop optimization in a live Open RAN environment, associated with a TM Forum Level-4 validated RAN energy use case.
These examples carry different evidentiary weight. Ericsson provides an industry estimate. DOCOMO’s 2023 OREX announcement provides forward-looking expected benefits. Rakuten provides a realized result for a specific live-network use case.
Together, they support a reasonable strategic hypothesis: intelligent automation can help operators carry increasing traffic while keeping the cost curve materially flatter than the traffic curve.
A precise ROI or payback period would require operator-specific information, including the network cost baseline, traffic distribution, spectrum position, energy prices, site costs, integration investment, and actual deployment architecture.
Performance remains part of the economic case
Efficiency has to be evaluated alongside network performance.
A relevant example comes from a Samsung and KDDI commercial-network trial completed in June 2026. Samsung’s AI-powered RAN Speed Optimizer produced a reported 31 percent average improvement in peak-hour 5G downlink throughput across the trial area, reaching up to 52 percent in dense urban locations.
The trial ran across hundreds of cells on KDDI’s live commercial 5G SA network. It represents a field-trial result from a specific deployment environment, so the percentages should be interpreted within that scope.
Its significance lies in demonstrating how targeted optimization can extract additional performance from deployed network resources.
This is an important part of the automation business case. Network intelligence can contribute to operational efficiency while also improving how effectively existing radio resources deliver user performance.
AI-RAN should be evaluated through maturity and use case
AI-RAN is likely to become increasingly relevant to this architecture, although different AI-enabled network functions are at very different stages of maturity.
SMO and Non-RT RIC already support practical applications such as forecasting, policy optimization, energy management, and anomaly analysis.
More ambitious real-time AI-RAN concepts involve AI models participating directly in radio-resource decisions. This area remains earlier in its maturity cycle, with much of the current industry activity centered on trials and progressively more sophisticated use cases.
A practical five-year strategy can generate value from mature automation capabilities today while maintaining an architecture capable of adopting more sophisticated AI-RAN functions as commercial evidence develops.
This also gives operators a disciplined way to evaluate AI. Each use case can be assessed through measurable outcomes such as throughput, congestion, energy consumption, operational effort, and cost.
Edge AI changes where network demand appears
AI also introduces an architectural question about where inference occurs.
Inference can run in a centralized cloud, at a network edge, close to the RAN, or directly on the device. Each placement affects the network differently.
Centralized cloud inference creates radio traffic and transport demand. Edge inference can reduce transport requirements because data travels a shorter distance through the network. The radio uplink may still carry audio, video, sensor data, or contextual information from the device to the edge compute location.
On-device inference has the greatest potential to remove that traffic from the network because processing happens locally.
For network planning, the key uncertainty is therefore where future AI traffic terminates and how much data must traverse each part of the architecture.
This strengthens the case for annual reforecasting. AI traffic assumptions made today will need to evolve as devices, edge platforms, applications, and user behavior develop.
RF fundamentals remain fundamental
Increasing intelligence in the network does not reduce the importance of RF engineering.
Link budgets still determine whether sufficient signal reaches the receiver after transmit power, antenna gain, propagation losses, penetration losses, and other margins are considered.
Spectrum characteristics still determine the fundamental relationship between coverage and capacity. Low bands provide broader coverage and stronger penetration. Mid-band spectrum provides the central coverage-capacity balance for much of 5G. High-band spectrum offers substantial capacity over shorter distances.
Antenna patterns still shape coverage and interference. Beamforming still depends on the phase and amplitude relationships across antenna elements. Massive MIMO still depends on the underlying propagation environment and radio conditions.
These RF decisions establish the physical operating envelope of the network.
SMO and RIC provide another layer of capability. They can observe performance across that physical infrastructure, correlate network conditions with traffic, apply policy, automate selected operational decisions, and provide evidence for future investment.
This creates a useful relationship between the two disciplines:
RF engineering defines the physical possibilities and constraints of the network. Network intelligence helps operators use those resources more efficiently over time.
The five-year opportunity is an operating-model transformation
It is easy to frame network evolution around individual technologies such as Massive MIMO, Open RAN, SMO, RIC, AI-RAN, slicing, edge computing, or eventually 6G.
The larger opportunity comes from how these capabilities work together.
An operator can continuously improve the efficiency of spectrum and infrastructure already deployed. Spectrum can be refarmed as legacy demand declines. Carrier aggregation can increase usable bandwidth. Massive MIMO can add substantial capacity to selected existing sites. Densification can address locations where the physical capacity requirement warrants additional cells.
At the same time, the intelligence layer can forecast congestion, steer traffic, optimize energy consumption, automate assurance, and provide increasingly accurate evidence about where the next investment should go.
The resulting operating model becomes iterative:
Measure, forecast, optimize, invest, validate, and re-baseline.
That cycle is particularly valuable during a period when traffic patterns, AI workloads, enterprise requirements, spectrum availability, and network technology are all evolving.
Final thought
The forecast of approximately 203 EB per month in 2025 growing to 515 EB per month by 2031 provides a useful picture of the scale ahead.
The exact 2031 number will matter less to an individual operator than its ability to respond intelligently as reality diverges from the forecast.
Some markets will grow faster. Others will grow more slowly. FWA adoption will vary. AI applications will change the uplink and downlink mix. More inference will move toward the edge and onto devices. Spectrum positions and enterprise opportunities will differ significantly between operators.
A resilient five-year strategy therefore needs physical capacity, operational intelligence, financial discipline, and regular opportunities to change course.
RAN investment creates the capacity required by growing demand. SMO and RIC improve visibility into how that capacity is being used and where future investment can generate the greatest value. Automation can reduce energy and operational effort, while RF engineering continues to define the physical constraints within which the network operates.
The objective for the next five years is larger than carrying more traffic.
It is building a mobile network that becomes more efficient, measurable, and adaptable as traffic grows.